□中信证券  薛继锐

    上周市场在中石化、中国联通等蓝筹股的带动下，继续走强。前期不被投资者看好的周期性股票走势转强。随着投资者保护基金等措施的出台，市场有所好转，基金持仓相对稳定，整体略有增加，但同时也看到基金之间的分歧亦较大。

    7月29日仓位测算结果显示，上周五85只开放式基金平均仓位为68.2%，相对上周的67.2%，持仓比例提高了1%左右，净变动为0.7%。其中指数基金提高幅度最快，达3.6%，平均持仓为92%。主动型基金平均持仓比例提高了0.8%左右，其中净变动0.4%，显示基金在仓位控制策略上出现了一定转变迹象，持股信心有所增加。

    同时我们也看到，基金之间的分歧依然较大，从估计结果看，不同方向的仓位变化比较大，有的超过了10%的水平，即使考虑到估计误差的因素，基金的分歧仍然不可忽视，意味着它们对市场的看法存在较大差异。因此，后市就此能够走强的观点并不充分。

    从具体基金来看，广发小盘、华宝策略、博时主题、中银中国、博时精选、景顺鼎益、景顺股票、景顺增长、博时价值、南方积配等10只基金持仓比例增加相对较大，可能在5%以上。而金鹰小盘、东方龙、国联成长、金鹰优选、广发聚富、嘉实成长、大成精选等10只基金表现出持股比例增加5%以上的迹象，其他基金持仓变化在-5%-5%之间。

    从管理公司的变动趋势看，金鹰、东方、国联、大成等公司持仓比例下降比较明显。而华富、上投摩根富林明、中银国际、博时、海富通等公司持股比例有所上升。

    总体而言，市场连续两周走强对于扭转投资者信心起到了积极作用，市场环境和对宏观经济的看法均出现积极因素。从仓位估计结果看，基金对此也做出了谨慎的小幅增持的回应。但是投资者之间的分歧也是比较明显的，投资者仍在期待不确定因素的进一步落实。

    投资基金仓位估计表  （2005.7.29）

    基金类型       管理公司       基金名称 本周持仓比例估计 上周持仓比例估计 本周持仓比例变动 最近季报披露投资比例% 相对季报比例变动 

    股票型基金     金鹰           金鹰小盘 52.9%            67.7%            -14.8%           61.2%                 -8.2%            

    国联           国联成长 67.6%            80.7%            -13.1%           74.1%                 -6.5%            

    金鹰           金鹰优选 55.3%            67.7%            -12.4%           74.9%                 -19.6%           

    大成           大成精选 57.3%            66.4%            -9.1%            70.4%                 -13.1%           

    湘财荷银       合丰周期 62.6%            69.5%            -6.9%            75.3%                 -12.7%           

    光大保德信     量化核心 84.3%            89.1%            -4.8%            90.2%                 -5.9%            

    华夏           华夏成长 61.2%            65.7%            -4.5%            67.4%                 -6.2%            

    天治           天治品质 73.2%            77.6%            -4.4%            73.7%                 -0.5%            

    华安           华安创新 55.2%            58.5%            -3.3%            70.3%                 -15.2%           

    鹏华           鹏华收益 67.6%            70.3%            -2.7%            72.8%                 -5.1%            

    申万巴黎       盛利精选 68.6%            71.2%            -2.6%            69.6%                 -1.0%            

    宝盈           宝盈增长 60.1%            62.1%            -2.0%            60.2%                 -0.1%            

    湘财荷银       合丰成长 64.3%            65.4%            -1.1%            71.2%                 -6.9%            

    华夏           华夏大盘 73.8%            74.2%            -0.3%            75.0%                 -1.2%            

    易方达         易基积极 63.6%            63.6%            0.0%             66.1%                 -2.5%            

    东吴           东吴嘉禾 78.0%            77.6%            0.4%             77.6%                 0.4%             

    巨田           巨田基础 68.2%            67.4%            0.9%             65.1%                 3.1%             

    湘财荷银       合丰稳定 69.9%            68.9%            1.0%             67.7%                 2.2%             

    国泰           国泰精选 65.0%            63.3%            1.7%             72.0%                 -6.9%            

    湘财荷银       荷银精选 77.7%            74.4%            3.2%             78.4%                 -0.8%            

    银华           银华优势 68.8%            65.4%            3.4%             65.9%                 2.9%             

    华宝兴业       宝康消费 60.4%            56.2%            4.3%             66.6%                 -6.2%            

    海富通         海富精选 75.8%            71.1%            4.7%             74.6%                 1.2%             

    招商           招商股票 70.2%            65.4%            4.8%             73.9%                 -3.7%            

    易方达         易基策略 65.8%            60.9%            4.9%             67.5%                 -1.7%            

    长信           长信银利 75.6%            70.6%            5.0%             76.9%                 -1.3%            

    南方           南方积配 61.7%            56.0%            5.7%             66.6%                 -4.9%            

    博时           博时价值 80.6%            74.9%            5.8%             75.8%                 4.9%             

    景顺长城       景顺增长 64.6%            58.1%            6.5%             70.5%                 -5.9%            

    景顺长城       景顺股票 66.3%            59.1%            7.2%             71.2%                 -4.8%            

    景顺长城       景顺鼎益 69.7%            62.3%            7.3%             69.7%                 0.0%             

    博时           博时精选 69.2%            61.1%            8.1%             64.4%                 4.8%             

    中银国际       中银中国 55.7%            46.7%            9.0%             49.6%                 6.1%             

    博时           博时主题 74.8%            65.7%            9.1%             68.1%                 6.8%             

    华宝兴业       华宝策略 85.8%            76.6%            9.3%             80.5%                 5.3%             

    广发           广发小盘 90.4%            75.7%            14.7%            75.2%                 15.1%            

    配置型混合基金 东方           东 方 龙 34.6%            48.2%            -13.6%           37.0%                 -2.4%            

    广发           广发聚富 55.9%            65.6%            -9.7%            69.7%                 -13.7%           

    广发           广发稳健 54.9%            61.1%            -6.2%            63.2%                 -8.3%            

    华安           华安宝利 44.2%            49.5%            -5.3%            53.5%                 -9.3%            

    富国           富国动态 61.4%            63.9%            -2.5%            65.9%                 -4.6%            

    国联安         德盛小盘 47.5%            48.3%            -0.8%            52.3%                 -4.7%            

    天治           天治财富 52.4%            52.9%            -0.5%            48.0%                 4.4%             

    国联安         德盛稳健 60.5%            60.1%            0.3%             64.8%                 -4.4%            

    中融           中融景气 63.9%            62.7%            1.2%             63.8%                 0.1%             

    长盛           长盛精选 72.5%            69.8%            2.7%             70.0%                 2.6%             

    银河           银河银泰 74.6%            71.5%            3.1%             75.5%                 -0.9%            

    华宝兴业       宝康配置 73.1%            67.8%            5.3%             71.8%                 1.3%             

    景顺长城       景顺平衡 37.8%            31.5%            6.4%             37.6%                 0.2%             

    华夏           华夏回报 66.0%            59.4%            6.7%             66.5%                 -0.5%            

    招商           招商平衡 53.7%            44.6%            9.1%             48.2%                 5.5%             

    海富通         海富收益 64.4%            54.6%            9.8%             54.4%                 9.9%             

    易方达         易基平稳 66.9%            56.8%            10.2%            61.5%                 5.4%             

    偏股型混合基金 嘉实           嘉实成长 63.0%            72.4%            -9.4%            75.1%                 -12.0%           

    大成           大成蓝筹 65.6%            72.9%            -7.3%            71.5%                 -5.8%            

    嘉实           嘉实服务 72.5%            77.8%            -5.4%            78.9%                 -6.4%            

    嘉实           嘉实稳健 55.7%            60.6%            -4.9%            69.9%                 -14.2%           

    国泰           国泰金马 62.9%            67.7%            -4.8%            71.8%                 -8.9%            

    融通           融通行业 45.8%            49.7%            -3.8%            41.6%                 4.3%             

    长盛           长盛成长 67.2%            70.8%            -3.5%            68.1%                 -0.9%            

    融通           新 蓝 筹 66.5%            69.9%            -3.4%            69.0%                 -2.5%            

    宝盈           宝盈鸿利 63.7%            66.7%            -3.0%            71.5%                 -7.9%            

    泰信           泰信先行 67.9%            69.9%            -1.9%            75.5%                 -7.6%            

    诺安           诺安平衡 67.0%            67.6%            -0.5%            63.5%                 3.5%             

    银河           银河稳健 70.6%            70.8%            -0.2%            72.9%                 -2.3%            

    招商           招商先锋 74.0%            73.7%            0.3%             70.5%                 3.5%             

    大成           大成价值 62.2%            61.8%            0.4%             72.6%                 -10.4%           

    南方           南方稳健 68.0%            66.1%            1.8%             71.7%                 -3.8%            

    国泰           国泰金鹰 59.3%            57.2%            2.1%             68.3%                 -9.0%            

    富国           富国天益 70.2%            67.1%            3.1%             78.0%                 -7.8%            

    鹏华           鹏华成长 74.6%            71.2%            3.4%             67.7%                 6.9%             

    嘉实           嘉实增长 68.2%            63.7%            4.5%             67.3%                 0.8%             

    长城           长城久恒 75.5%            70.5%            5.0%             68.6%                 6.9%             

    融通           融通成长 76.0%            70.9%            5.1%             63.9%                 12.1%            

    鹏华           鹏华50   70.1%            60.3%            9.9%             64.8%                 5.4%             

    上投摩根富林明 中国优势 75.9%            64.9%            11.0%            72.0%                 3.9%             

    华富           华富优选 74.6%            62.8%            11.8%            77.6%                 -3.0%            

    股票型指数基金 博时           博时裕富 92.8%            91.3%            1.4%             92.3%                 0.5%             

    长城           长城久泰 98.9%            96.1%            2.9%             94.7%                 4.2%             

    华安           华安180  97.9%            87.4%            10.5%            86.9%                 11.0%            

    华夏           50ETF    100.0%           100.0%           0.0%             99.1%                 0.9%             

    融通           融通100  81.2%            76.0%            5.2%             76.7%                 4.5%             

    天同           天同180  84.9%            79.7%            5.2%             76.9%                 7.9%             

    易方达         易基50   97.4%            92.8%            4.6%             91.1%                 6.3%             

    银华 银华88 81.6% 82.9% -1.3% 91.1% -9.5%