上证指数在2月1日创出1187点新低后，随即在2月2日展开了强劲的上攻走势，截至昨日的8个交易日已上涨10.12%。尽管短期市场形势喜人，但统计表明，本轮行情中大出风头的基本属于超跌股，可谓“跌得越惨，反弹越狠”。不过，如果行情仅仅依靠超跌反弹的话，那么其持续性就难免为投资者所忧虑了。

    据统计，2月2日以来共有177只股票的涨幅超过15%。再进一步分析这些股票自去年9月24日至今年2月1日的最大跌幅(区间最高收盘价与2月1日收盘价相比所得)，其平均值高达30.1%，而同期上证指数的最大跌幅不过为18.8%。如果我们将目光聚焦到反弹幅度最大的20只股票，则可以发现，其前期最大跌幅的均值为33%。再换一个角度看，前期最大跌幅超过40%的股票有80%在本轮行情中跑赢了大盘。

    强劲反弹的股票中虽然可见铜都铜业等股价超跌，且基本面明显好转的股票，但其中多数股票的反弹能量仍然只是来自超跌而已，顶多有个别股票被主力戴上了热门题材的帽子。从市盈率指标来看，涨幅居前的股票多数偏高，前20位的股票中除铜都铜业、长安汽车、创业环保等少数几只股票外，市盈率均在20倍以上。在其投机价值消耗殆尽之时，恐怕其投资价值无力支持其后续行情。

    本轮行情领先股多属超跌反弹

    代码   名称     去年9·24 至今年2·1 最大跌幅(%)       2·2以来 涨跌幅(%)    市盈率 (前推法)    2·2以来 换手率(%)    收盘价 

    000159 国际实业 -35.77                                 55.44                 147.18             36.30                 6.14   

    600460 士兰微   -43.86                                 45.32                 34.05              31.13                 14.75  

    600885 力诺工业 -28.99                                 35.34                 103.25             23.84                 4.94   

    600853 龙建股份 -37.02                                 33.59                 30.67              36.15                 3.5    

    000630 铜都铜业 -39.66                                 31.42                 16.95              26.37                 5.73   

    000880 山东巨力 -43.13                                 31.28                 -7.92              37.06                 2.77   

    600988 东方宝龙 -10.03                                 29.98                                    17.45                 12.01  

    600477 杭萧钢构 -33.61                                 28.77                                    46.08                 9.13   

    000950 *ST农化  -5.64                                  28.57                 -3.26              15.10                 3.87   

    600854 春兰股份 -31.58                                 28.38                 66.11              8.98                  4.84   

    000625 长安汽车 -37.99                                 27.29                 7.90               74.04                 6.67   

    000820 金城股份 -33.48                                 25.85                 182.46             10.74                 3.7    

    600803 威远生化 -36.47                                 25.56                 47.77              19.00                 5.6    

    600399 抚顺特钢 -32.15                                 25.46                 232.34             16.13                 7.44   

    000862 吴忠仪表 -51.34                                 25.23                 -16.81             27.98                 2.73   

    000920 南方汇通 -46.69                                 25.18                 57.13              67.11                 6.86   

    000520 中国凤凰 -37.62                                 24.43                 39.78              28.43                 4.89   

    600337 美克股份 -15.69                                 23.95                 37.97              13.94                 6.21   

    600681 ST万鸿   -17.26                                 23.93                 -0.57              27.81                 2.02   

    600874 创业环保 -42.71                                 23.69                 17.92              18.93                 4.96