□新疆证券研究所  钟精腾

    长江电力股改方案高票通过后，宝钢股份也将于本周表决，8月16日第二批试点公司将表决完毕。第一、第二批46家试点股方案和引发的问题都将是制定股改管理办法的重要依据，监管层关于股改的底线也日益确定。而一旦管理办法出台，股改工作将全面铺开，股改仍将成为中短期内影响个股及大盘走势的最重要因素。因此对作为其它上市公司股改标尺的46家试点股进行统计分析，将有助于我们更好地把握未来的股改机会。

    股改标尺已然明朗

    首先，支付对价以送股为主，简单明了。除了长江电力股改的对价方案外，其它试点股的对价方案均简单明了。统计显示，试点股中支付对价的方式主要有送股、派现、缩股、权证（包括农产品的沽售股权）。除吉林熬东以缩股支付对价以及农产品以保底回售支付对价外，其余均是以送股为主。同时派现的有上港集箱、G三一、华海药业、长江电力、中化国际、G敖东、G金发，而附送股权的有长江电力、宝钢股份。

    其次，平均支付对价为每10股送3.36股。统计显示，44家以送股为支付对价的试点股中，非流通股东向流通股东平均支付的对价为每股0.336股。而比较发现，试点股中，非流通股占总股本的比例均较高，其中中信证券非流通股比例高达83.88%，过半的试点股非流通股比例超过七成。而非流通股比例较高的个股支付对价的比例往往较高，而非流通股比例较低的个股支付高对价难度较大，如人福科技、中孚实业等。这也可以理解为什么非流通股占总股本比例仅38.61%的农产品采取欧式认沽股权的方式。

    最后，净资产值不再是支付对价的绊脚石。“上市公司国有股转让价格不能低于净资产”，曾被称为国有股转让的一条“红线”。如今，在股权分置改革的背景下，这一定价原则面临挑战。韶钢松山方案的制定没有受到公司股价跌破每股净资产的影响，没有同净资产挂钩，而主要是以流通股股东在改革后所持股票市值不低于改革前持股市值作为对价计算依据，非流通股东向流通股东每股支付对价0.35股。由此表明，市净率已不是国有企业股改的绊脚石，低市净率的公司折价送出高对价的事情在一些上市公司未来的股改中可能将再次发生。

    对价利好效应逐步升温

    高比例送股对价使得流通股的投资价值大幅提升，但出乎市场意料，试点股推出之初，市场对于一些高比例对价的试点股无动于衷。统计显示，46家试点股在推出对价方案复牌后的三个交易日累计涨幅仅为1.39%。除清华同方、紫江企业分别有21.03%、13.67%的涨幅外，其余涨幅均在一成以下，甚至近半的试点股复牌后逆市下跌，其中金牛能源、广州控股、中信证券、长力股份、中化国际、伟星股份等复牌后的三个交易日累计跌幅均在7%以上。

    但其后随着传化股份、凯诺科技等试点股的大幅上涨，特别是G传化、G龙盛等首批复牌的G股大幅度填权的刺激，试点股热急骤升温。统计数据显示，16家G股复牌首日平均实际涨幅高达18.39%，其中G亨通复牌首日涨幅更是高达32.50%。若考虑到试点期间（即试点首次停牌至G股复牌日）的涨幅，其累计涨幅更为惊人，除G金牛外，其它个股试点期间均出现较大幅度的抢权及填权行情，平均涨幅为28.43%，扣除期间上证指数上涨的影响，其涨幅仍高达27.38%。其中G亨通、G传化、G凯诺等个股试点期间累计涨幅更是高达40%以上。即试点前买入试点股的投资者目前获利相当丰厚。试点股在试点期间的大幅度的抢权及填权走势，不但使得试点股投资者获利不菲，而更重要的是试点股的赚钱效应使得市场对股改的认同度逐步提高，有效地激发了市场人气。

    统计显示，所有上市公司境内非流通股本是A股流通股本的2.1倍，与试点股比例相当。故预计未来上市公司股改所支付的对价有望达到试点股的平均水平，即10送3股左右。若未来股改股能保持目前试点股在试点期间28.43%涨幅的一半，那么股指即有望重返千三点之上。可见，作为其它上市公司股改标尺的46家上市公司，其未来股价中枢的高低对整个市场影响至关重要，甚至影响着股改的成败。

    综上分析可知，未来股改对价的支付将以送股为主，而非流通股比例是决定支付对价多少的决定性因素。而从目前二级市场个股的表现看，除对价预期外，决定股价走势强弱的因素还与公司质地有关。操作上，建议关注一些非流通股比例较高、对价潜力较大的低市盈率股，如石油济柴、东方锅炉、烟台万华、贵州茅台、三普药业等。预计这些个股在未来的股改行情中有望脱颖而出。

    46家股改试点股二级市场表现一览

    名称     股改方案                                                  股改方案推出复牌后三日涨幅（%） G股复牌当日实际涨幅（%） 试点股试点期间涨幅（%） 试点期间相对大盘的涨幅（%） 股价 （元）    

    对价类型         送股数（股） 每股派现（元） 承诺未来减持价格 

    G 敖  东 缩股；派现       0          0.4                          8.81                          17.13                  21.69                 22.86                     6.42         

    G 传  化 送股             0.45                   25               -3.16                         27.48                  40.77                 41.93                     12.3         

    G 海  特 送股             0.38                                   -5.74                         8.15                   14.36                 11.05                     8.95         

    G 亨  通 送股             0.45                                   -2.78                         32.50                  41.61                 39.52                     6.46         

    G 恒  生 送股             0.4                                    3.87                          18.54                  30.97                 27.66                     5.8          

    G 华  靖 送股             0.26                                   -4.47                         9.19                   8.65                  5.34                      6.95         

    G 金  发 送股；派现       0.3        0.144        16               2.56                          10.75                  22.92                 19.61                     10.99        

    G 金  牛 送股             0.25                                   -15.29                        11.62                  -19.06                -17.09                    6.47         

    G 凯  诺 送股             0.3                    10               4.74                          18.49                  40.72                 39.55                     4.95         

    G 龙  盛 送股             0.4                                    5.33                          27.50                  31.68                 30.50                     4.28         

    G 明  珠 送股             0.4                                    6.70                          23.30                  33.60                 32.42                     12.19        

    G 七匹狼 送股             0.3                    7.63             2.88                          12.43                  17.45                 14.14                     6.27         

    G 三  一 送股；派现       0.35       0.8          19               9.26                          18.01                  37.01                 41.01                     7.77         

    G 苏泊尔 送股             0.35                   13.5             2.22                          20.00                  26.86                 24.78                     7.81         

    G 卧  龙 送股             0.35                   5.58             5.07                          23.43                  37.00                 34.91                     4.62         

    G 紫  江 送股             0.3                    3.08             13.67                         15.70                  21.12                 25.34                     2.74         

    宝钢股份 送股；权证       0.22                   5.63             4.09                                                                                              5.14         

    宝胜股份 送股             0.35                   7.8              5.65                                                                                              5.88         

    长江电力 送股；派现；权证 0.125      0.588                        1.71                                                                                              8.74         

    长力股份 送股             0.35                   3.6              -7.96                                                                                             3.91         

    风神股份 送股             0.42                   7.5              -0.15                                                                                             7.41         

    广州控股 送股             0.28                   6                -10.05                                                                                            5.28         

    宏盛科技 送股             0.5                                    6.64                                                                                              12.61        

    华发股份 送股             0.3                    9.62             5.93                                                                                              9.71         

    名称     股改方案                                            股改方案推出复牌后三日涨幅（%） G股复牌当日实际涨幅（%） 试点股试点期间涨幅（%） 试点期间相对大盘的涨幅（%） 股价 （元）    

    对价类型   送股数（股） 每股派现（元） 承诺未来减持价格 

    华海药业 送股；派现 0.25       0.714        20               4.41                                                                                              15.97        

    华联综超 送股       0.23                   10               9.15                                                                                              10.17        

    鲁西化工 送股       0.4                    5.2              2.01                                                                                              5.29         

    农 产 品 回购       0                                      8.53                                                                                              4.13         

    清华同方 送股       0.356                                  21.03                                                                                             11.14        

    人福科技 送股       0.2                    6                -4.23                                                                                             4.37         

    上港集箱 送股；派现 0.22       1                            -4.88                                                                                             16.62        

    韶钢松山 送股       0.35                   5                2.46                                                                                              4.11         

    申能股份 送股       0.32                                   -4.64                                                                                             7.77         

    苏宁电器 送股       0.25                   50               -2.92                                                                                             34.4         

    天威保变 送股       0.4                                    -0.13                                                                                             8.54         

    伟星股份 送股       0.4                    8                -7.87                                                                                             8.86         

    物华股份 送股       0.5                    4.5              8.70                                                                                              3.36         

    新 和 成 送股       0.35                   16.18            5.89                                                                                              12.91        

    鑫富药业 送股       0.45                   22               -4.48                                                                                             15.77        

    银鸽投资 送股       0.4                    4.5              -3.87                                                                                             4.63         

    永新股份 送股       0.4                    12               6.75                                                                                              7.91         

    郑州煤电 送股       0.38                   4.6              -2.93                                                                                             4.16         

    中孚实业 送股       0.1                    5                -1.47                                                                                             4.68         

    中化国际 送股；派现 0.175      0.558                        -7.89                                                                                             5.4          

    中捷股份 送股       0.45                   12.99            9.10                                                                                              8            

    中信证券 送股       0.35                                   -8.45                                                                                             6.25         

    数据来源：天相、万德；截止日8月9日；试点期间指试点股首次停牌至G股复牌日。