中信证券研究部  江赛春

    上周A股市场再度出现虎头蛇尾的走势，大盘在周一高开高走，但在接下来的四个交易日却持续暴跌，全周跌幅达到4.20%。基金重仓股再度出现了全面下挫。从基金的操作来看，上周基金仓位也再次出现了小幅下滑。股权分置改革的不确定预期和对基本面下滑的担心是导致基金操作偏向保守的主要原因。

    仓位测算结果显示，上周五88只开放式基金加权平均仓位为60.34%，与前周的61.11%相比下降0.77%。封闭式基金加权平均仓位为66.06%，比前周的66.56%下降0.5%。

    从具体基金的操作来看，多数基金的绝对仓位都有所下滑，但考虑到上周市场总体跌幅明显，扣除价格变动因素后主动减仓因素较不明显。同样扣除价格变动因素后，宝盈增长、天治财富增长、东方龙等基金仓位净变动显示出一定的仓位增幅，共有8只基金仓位净变动在2%以上。在另一方面，银河稳健、易方达50、长城久泰等基金仓位下降相对较明显。指数型基金仓位普遍有所下降。

    从上周市场表现来看，基金重仓股再度出现了较大面积的向下调整，不少重仓股出现大幅下跌走势。在近200只基金重仓股中，小幅上涨的个股不到30只，而其余大部分重仓股再次出现大面积下跌走势。股权分置改革和宏观基本面走向趋弱仍然是决定市场走向的两个基本因素。周一在对股权分置改革利好的期待下市场延续了前周周五的上涨，但正如我们预料的那样，一旦预期无法落实这种反弹就随时可能夭折。在证监会明确股权分置改革很快将全面铺开的情况下，关于非流通股支付对价仍然没能形成明确的预期，这导致股权分置的总体影响更加难以判断。在此影响下前期的试点效应也迅速衰退，第二批试点公司公布方案后市场反应已大不如前。而基金重仓股中的股权分置改革试点股也迅速转冷，三一重工上周重挫27%，前期的短期资金炒作特征明显。

    而从基金在股权分置逐步推进过程中的动作来看，如果说前期以对分置改革感到茫然、观望为主的话，随着中报公布日期的临近，对宏观基本面走弱的担心则更显著地影响到基金的操作。随着宏观经济减速的影响逐步蔓延到不少基金重仓行业，基金主动进行仓位结构调整势在必行。机构之间的分歧使重仓股的震荡在所难免，而部分基本面恶化的重仓股出现大幅下跌，基金减仓态度已经十分坚决。因此，上周基金重仓股出现的普跌既是全市场预期不明的反映，也包含着基金主动调整的因素，其后市走势仍难以乐观。

    开放式基金仓位测算结果

    基金名称   本周持仓比例估计 上周持仓比例估计 本周持仓比例变动 本周持仓净变动 增持状态 

    宝盈增长   25.32%           23.18%           2.14%            2.89%          仓位稳定 

    天治增长   39.83%           38.31%           1.52%            2.53%                   

    东方龙     52.08%           50.78%           1.30%            2.37%                   

    银华88     57.63%           56.32%           1.31%            2.37%                   

    华富混合   38.75%           37.49%           1.26%            2.26%                   

    中银中国   44.32%           43.19%           1.13%            2.18%                   

    国泰精选   62.10%           61.03%           1.08%            2.10%                   

    荷银混合   28.75%           27.52%           1.23%            2.08%                   

    巨田基础   65.45%           64.52%           0.93%            1.92%                   

    中国50     65.45%           64.55%           0.91%            1.90%                   

    宝康消费   61.02%           60.17%           0.85%            1.88%                   

    宝盈鸿利   65.46%           64.57%           0.88%            1.87%                   

    景顺鼎益   40.40%           39.64%           0.76%            1.78%                   

    融通100    67.69%           66.90%           0.79%            1.75%                   

    华夏成长   60.60%           59.90%           0.70%            1.73%                   

    盛利混合   21.21%           20.17%           1.04%            1.72%                   

    大成精选   62.17%           61.71%           0.47%            1.48%                   

    宝利配置   56.86%           56.46%           0.41%            1.47%                   

    金鹰精选   62.19%           61.92%           0.27%            1.29%                   

    富国天瑞   42.20%           42.04%           0.17%            1.21%                   

    华夏大盘   62.21%           62.08%           0.13%            1.15%                   

    博时主题   58.99%           58.94%           0.05%            1.09%                   

    东吴嘉禾   57.78%           57.76%           0.01%            1.06%                   

    博时精选   64.45%           64.46%           -0.01%           0.98%                   

    融通新蓝筹 66.67%           66.74%           -0.06%           0.90%                   

    银河理财   60.02%           60.15%           -0.14%           0.90%                   

    南方积配   67.79%           67.87%           -0.08%           0.86%                   

    融通成长   60.02%           60.25%           -0.22%           0.81%                   

    易方达策略 70.03%           70.31%           -0.28%           0.62%                   

    合丰成长   60.11%           60.68%           -0.58%           0.45%                   

    嘉实稳健   64.50%           65.03%           -0.53%           0.45%                   

    广发小盘   68.95%           69.54%           -0.59%           0.33%                   

    融通行业   62.31%           63.12%           -0.81%           0.19%                   

    海富通精选 60.09%           60.93%           -0.84%           0.19%                   

    招商先锋   65.65%           66.45%           -0.81%           0.16%                   

    富国动态   55.66%           56.57%           -0.91%           0.15%                   

    易方达平稳 66.76%           67.57%           -0.81%           0.14%                   

    广发聚富   66.76%           67.57%           -0.81%           0.13%                   

    德盛精选   36.76%           37.65%           -0.88%           0.12%                   

    海富收益   46.78%           47.76%           -0.98%           0.09%                   

    银华优势   62.32%           63.24%           -0.92%           0.09%                   

    景顺股票   65.65%           66.53%           -0.88%           0.08%                   

    广发稳健   64.54%           65.44%           -0.90%           0.08%                   

    合丰稳定   62.32%           63.25%           -0.92%           0.08%                   

    南方稳健   63.54%           64.46%           -0.91%           0.08%                   

    鹏华行业   60.11%           61.07%           -0.97%           0.06%                   

    长城久恒   60.11%           61.07%           -0.97%           0.06%                   

    金鹰优选   65.66%           66.58%           -0.92%           0.04%                   

    宝康配置   55.67%           56.68%           -1.02%           0.04%                   

    申万精选   62.34%           63.38%           -1.04%           -0.04%                  

    招商股票   62.34%           63.41%           -1.07%           -0.07%                  

    中国优势   66.78%           67.79%           -1.01%           -0.07%                  

    富国价值   66.78%           67.82%           -1.04%           -0.10%                  

    华宝策略   65.67%           66.74%           -1.06%           -0.10%                  

    中融行业   62.35%           63.45%           -1.11%           -0.11%                  

    天治品质   70.11%           71.11%           -1.00%           -0.11%                  

    大成稳健   63.46%           64.57%           -1.12%           -0.13%                  

    荷银精选   66.79%           67.86%           -1.07%           -0.13%                  

    大成价值   62.13%           63.28%           -1.14%           -0.14%                  

    景顺内需   66.79%           67.87%           -1.09%           -0.14%                  

    长信银利   66.79%           67.87%           -1.09%           -0.14%                  

    嘉实服务   61.24%           62.40%           -1.16%           -0.14%                  

    嘉实增长   67.69%           68.76%           -1.08%           -0.15%                  

    德盛稳健   52.36%           53.63%           -1.26%           -0.20%                  

    华安180    72.34%           73.42%           -1.08%           -0.24%                  

    天同180    71.02%           72.13%           -1.11%           -0.24%                  

    长盛动态   59.61%           60.87%           -1.26%           -0.24%                  

    易基成长   72.35%           73.48%           -1.13%           -0.29%                  

    国联成长   70.15%           71.46%           -1.31%           -0.43%                  

    普天收益   57.94%           59.43%           -1.49%           -0.45%                  

    嘉实成长   69.71%           71.11%           -1.40%           -0.51%                  

    国泰金鹰   58.60%           60.25%           -1.64%           -0.61%                  

    诺安平衡   60.18%           61.84%           -1.66%           -0.64%                  

    招商平衡   45.76%           47.56%           -1.81%           -0.74%                  

    光大保德   74.63%           76.28%           -1.66%           -0.87%                  

    华夏回报   61.03%           62.96%           -1.93%           -0.92%                  

    华安创新   64.66%           66.57%           -1.91%           -0.95%                  

    泰信策略   67.99%           69.90%           -1.91%           -1.00%                  

    博时价值   70.22%           72.17%           -1.95%           -1.08%                  

    合丰周期   64.67%           66.72%           -2.05%           -1.09%                  

    国泰稳健   53.58%           55.76%           -2.18%           -1.12%                  

    博时裕富   77.98%           79.81%           -1.83%           -1.13%                  

    景顺平衡   43.58%           45.78%           -2.20%           -1.14%                  

    长盛成长   62.55%           64.67%           -2.12%           -1.14%                  

    长城久泰   71.34%           73.42%           -2.08%           -1.24%                  

    易方达50   78.01%           80.10%           -2.09%           -1.40%                  

    银河稳健   55.87%           58.70%           -2.83%           -1.79%                  

    加权平均   60.34%           61.11%           -0.77%           0.25%          仓位稳定