□江苏天鼎  秦洪

    虽然近期股指宽幅震荡，绩优股也难以幸免，甚至有不少基金重仓股出现了急跌走势，但是，拥有主营业务收入与主营业务利润率持续增长的个股依然抗跌，华微电子、西飞国际、广安爱众、文山电力等个股就是如此，那么，如何看待这一现象呢？

    近期由于股权分置改革以及经济周期等诸多因素的叠加效应存在，的确使得A股市场的估值体系出现了一定的紊乱现象，基金的投资思路也在变化，但千变万变，企业价值的坐标是不会改变的。这主要包括两层含义：一是市场方面的含义，即无论是投资热点如何变化，无论是政策如何变化，有一点是不变的，即股票不仅仅属于市场的，更是属于企业的，而市场的波动是改变不了企业的价值，投资者只要抓住了企业价值这一核心，那么就可以规避短期市场波动所带来的风险；二是价值理念方面的含义，即企业的价值主要体现在盈利能力与成长能力上，而主营业务收入的持续增长反映企业的成长性，主营业务利润率则反映盈利能力。因此我们可以寻找两市主营业务收入持续增长且主营业务利润率持续增长的上市公司（可简称为“双持续增长”），那么，买入并持有之就可以应付目前A股市场的波动。

    但是，“双持续增长”不仅仅指的是目前财务报表所显示出的持续增长，还包括在未来一至两年甚至是数年的可持续增长，也就是说，对于企业的价值而言，过去的“双持续增长”仅仅表明上市公司过去的辉煌，而股票上涨的动力则是未来企业价值的持续增长，因此，对于投资者而言，重要的不是从静态的数据中找到过去的“双持续增长”，而是从静态的数据中找到“双持续增长”的可持续性动力。

    既如此，扬子石化、承德钒钛、锡业股份等拥有周期性特征的上市公司是不能纳入到“双持续增长”的潜力股群体的，道理很简单，虽然在过去的财务报表中拥有了“双持续增长”的现状，但由于经济周期的存在，05年、06年的主营业务收入与主营业务利润率未必能够保持着持续增长，尤其是二季度以来，伴随着宏观调控向纵深推进，有色金属价格在下跌、PTA、PVC等石化化工产品价格在下跌，那么，就意味着此类周期性行业公司“双持续增长”能力不强，也难以成为市场未来的潜力股。

    但投资者可以重点跟踪以下两类个股：一是成本继续下降但公司产品销售有保证的上市公司，比如说小水电+电网的个股，其行业特征就是电网能够保证公司的产品销售，因为一地一网是我国供电的政策，不存在着竞争预期，所以，自备机组发电往往可以通过公司的自有电网迅速销售，获得极高的主营业务利润率，因此，凡是在近两年来有新增机组的小水电+电网股往往会出现黑马特征，今年一季度的文山电力已强势表现过，郴电国际、岷江水电、广安爱众、桂东电力等个股也存在着这样的机会，尤其是广安爱众去年收购的两座水电站在05年将全年出力，主营业务收入与主营业务利润率均会大幅增长，值得跟踪。另外，对南海发展、皖通高速等具有一定区域垄断优势的公用设施类个股也可跟踪。

    二是受到国际产业转移等积极推动影响的上市公司也可以关注，因为在固定资产不变的情况下，国际产业转移有望使得公司产能满负荷运作，降低单位固定成本，那么，主营业务毛利率会上升，而国际产业转移也有望使得出口的主营业务收入提升。比如说兰太实业的金属钠是高耗能产业，所以，欧美等国家出于成本的考虑，相继关闭了金属钠的生产线，从而使得兰太实业的主营业务收入及其利润率不断增长，值得重点跟踪。另外，华微电子、西飞国际也是如此，尤其是西飞国际，该股公告称由于转包生产产量增长以及飞机零部件订货增长，公司业绩将增长50%以上，近来除权以后，走势极其强劲，有资金建仓，值得关注。

    04年报、05一季主营业务收入及其利润率同时增长且增幅较大个股

    股票代码 股票名称 主营业务收入 增长率（04年报）（%）    主营业务利润率 增幅（04年报）（%）    主营业务收入 增长率（05一季）（%）    主营业务利润率 增幅（05一季）（%）    市盈率 （04年报）    今年来涨跌幅（%） 证监会行业                   

    000866   扬子石化 44.39                             9.12                                35.7                              1.94                                4.54                 -15.7           石油、化学、塑胶、塑料       

    000039   中集集团 92.52                             3.33                                105.15                            6.68                                4.59                 -0.13           金属、非金属                 

    000937   金牛能源 87.35                             5.47                                72.89                             15.38                               8.01                 -3.27           采掘业                       

    600005   武钢股份 254.76                            7.8                                 603.73                            7.34                                8.22                 -10.86          金属、非金属                 

    600096   云 天 化 36.01                             8.54                                43.8                              3.22                                9.05                 -17.94          石油、化学、塑胶、塑料       

    000933   神火股份 52.5                              10.06                               32.13                             13.69                               9.24                 -13.61          采掘业                       

    000960   锡业股份 87.64                             6.41                                36.56                             7.64                                9.49                 -7.2            金属、非金属                 

    000983   西山煤电 32                                2.76                                62.05                             6.86                                9.83                 -20.61          采掘业                       

    600683   银泰股份 14.68                             2.79                                45.7                              1.7                                 10.00                -11.2           批发和零售贸易               

    600508   上海能源 43.68                             2.94                                52.95                             2.96                                10.38                -20.55          采掘业                       

    600792   马龙产业 47.7                              8.76                                182.21                            6.89                                10.75                -29.49          金属、非金属                 

    000731   四川美丰 17.34                             9.49                                35.27                             7.2                                 11.13                -22.93          石油、化学、塑胶、塑料       

    600425   青松建化 9.37                              1.52                                12.99                             3.07                                11.43                -35.22          金属、非金属                 

    600995   文山电力 34.59                             4.85                                62.43                             25.35                               11.49                0.28            电力、煤气及水的生产和供应业 

    600227   赤 天 化 24.09                             8.61                                21.43                             10.72                               11.67                0.27            石油、化学、塑胶、塑料       

    600188   兖州煤业 40.9                              4.21                                46.9                              9.48                                12.06                -14.71          采掘业                       

    000608   阳光股份 110.04                            5                                   102.17                            11.38                               12.57                -31.01          房地产业                     

    600596   新安股份 66.91                             6.03                                64.58                             10.3                                13.07                6.09            石油、化学、塑胶、塑料       

    600518   康美药业 19.08                             3.05                                21.75                             2.87                                13.19                -23.08          医药、生物制品               

    600123   兰花科创 48.56                             2.12                                30.46                             4.84                                13.25                -6.73           采掘业                       

    600087   南京水运 20.44                             5.31                                31.35                             6.64                                13.38                7.95            交通运输、仓储业             

    600997   开滦股份 48.35                             2.29                                20.32                             48.21                               13.48                -23.04          采掘业                       

    600026   中海发展 25.31                             9.46                                39.72                             8.56                                14.87                -7.94           交通运输、仓储业             

    600020   中原高速 53.58                             6.93                                59.15                             3.45                                15.25                1.76            交通运输、仓储业             

    600607   上实联合 23.01                             2.15                                30.18                             3.03                                15.78                -13.18          综合类                       

    600875   东方电机 71                                11.17                               91.79                             5                                   16.17                -21.19          机械、设备、仪表             

    002022   科华生物 10.16                             3.2                                 23.68                             53.21                               16.50                -16.82          医药、生物制品               

    000060   中金岭南 25.14                             3.42                                26.38                             4.16                                18.03                -2.72           金属、非金属                 

    600036   招商银行 46.59                             2.38                                19.79                             2.07                                18.26                0.6             金融、保险业                 

    000617   石油济柴 103.94                            3.25                                28.74                             2.41                                19.10                12.69           机械、设备、仪表             

    注：数据截至2005年5月30日。

    股票代码 股票名称 主营业务收入 增长率（04年报）（%）    主营业务利润率 增幅（04年报）（%）    主营业务收入 增长率（05一季）（%）    主营业务利润率 增幅（05一季）（%）    市盈率 （04年报）    今年来涨跌幅（%） 证监会行业                   

    600502   安徽水利 21.18                             2.61                                8.23                              5.19                                19.37                -20.52          建筑业                       

    600182   桦林轮胎 971.94                            48.3                                246.34                            22.06                               19.48                -24.08          石油、化学、塑胶、塑料       

    600487   亨通光电 8.75                              2.03                                23.45                             3.53                                19.59                -22.88          信息技术业                   

    600121   郑州煤电 41.07                             3.27                                71.15                             6.97                                19.85                -24.09          电力、煤气及水的生产和供应业 

    600295   鄂尔多斯 6.18                              3.26                                6                                 1.84                                19.94                -28.95          纺织、服装、皮毛             

    000059   辽通化工 6.31                              9.02                                16.89                             15.03                               21.48                -13.67          石油、化学、塑胶、塑料       

    600575   芜 湖 港 24.76                             3.06                                29.53                             4.7                                 22.06                -4.22           交通运输、仓储业             

    600009   上海机场 32.34                             3.74                                16.81                             8.98                                22.15                -1.84           交通运输、仓储业             

    600323   南海发展 6.66                              2.64                                13.27                             4.64                                22.41                2.28            电力、煤气及水的生产和供应业 

    600331   宏达股份 66.54                             8.14                                71.61                             13.07                               22.45                23.4            石油、化学、塑胶、塑料       

    600869   *ST 三普 21.88                             7.28                                24.96                             3.71                                24.53                -1.34           医药、生物制品               

    600897   厦门空港 37.56                             9.32                                36.63                             10.11                               24.91                5.85            交通运输、仓储业             

    000792   盐湖钾肥 170.24                            15.21                               347.57                            3.84                                25.25                13.19           石油、化学、塑胶、塑料       

    600644   乐山电力 27.79                             6.56                                8.14                              3.22                                25.49                -26.2           电力、煤气及水的生产和供应业 

    600276   恒瑞医药 9.02                              7.89                                18.5                              3.65                                25.95                0.08            医药、生物制品               

    000022   深赤湾A 48.18                             2.3                                 40.36                             9.4                                 26.06                18.88           交通运输、仓储业             

    600150   沪东重机 20.25                             3.75                                69.32                             4.32                                26.37                17.09           机械、设备、仪表             

    600858   银座股份 560.33                            5.97                                360.88                            2.14                                27.47                12.78           综合类                       

    600622   嘉宝集团 45.42                             7.37                                8.58                              10.1                                27.55                -23.68          综合类                       

    600012   皖通高速 38.63                             2.92                                27.67                             8.48                                27.62                8.89            交通运输、仓储业             

    600360   华微电子 16.37                             2.31                                44.96                             3.66                                27.65                -2.57           电子                         

    600748   上实发展 85.97                             12.33                               137.48                            20.8                                28.43                -10.36          房地产业                     

    600979   广安爱众 27.59                             2.02                                32.65                             38.42                               29.00                -17.76          电力、煤气及水的生产和供应业 

    000861   海印股份 15.92                             4.71                                9.06                              4.66                                30.25                -28.82          金属、非金属                 

    600809   山西汾酒 33.79                             7.42                                49.48                             3.61                                30.41                4.17            食品、饮料                   

    600328   兰太实业 16.15                             2.84                                31.62                             6.4                                 33.00                12.6            石油、化学、塑胶、塑料       

    600725   云维股份 29.72                             2.25                                197.77                            34.3                                34.23                8               石油、化学、塑胶、塑料       

    000869   张 裕 A 18.17                             5.82                                42.14                             3.48                                36.08                45.82           食品、饮料                   

    000768   西飞国际 11.14                             2.45                                17.55                             3.28                                46.67                2.28            机械、设备、仪表             

    000537   南开戈德 299.39                            18.39                               454.68                            17.94                               48.90                -0.2            综合类                       

    数据来源：聚源数据  统计、制表：董凤斌