中信证券研究部  江赛春

    上周大盘在前半周震荡回落，但周三在银行设立基金公司的消息带动下大幅上涨，并在之后两个交易日持续放量上涨，显现出明显的新增资金进入迹象。银行、石化等大蓝筹板块引领市场上涨，而部分二线绩优股在短暂调整后再度强势上行。但从上周基金的操作来看，基金并不是新增资金的主要来源，基金之间操作有一定分化，总体仓位保持平稳。值得注意的是，基金的持仓结构在前几周的显著调整之后又有回复的迹象，表明波段操作可能是不少基金近期的主导思路。

    从仓位测算结果来看，上周五开放式基金加权平均仓位为65.34%，比前周的65.69%下降了0.35%；封闭式基金的仓位变动较小，加权平均仓位为69.15%，与前周的69.21%基本持平。虽然基金总体仓位变动不大，但上周基金之间的操作出现了一定分歧。仓位较轻的三只新基金，天治品质、长信银利和东方龙均有较显著的增仓迹象；而宝康消费品和金鹰优选两只基金则显示为减持。相对而言，仓位小幅下降的基金略占多数。另一点有助于判断基金操作思路的是，仓位测算结果显示，在前两周基金持仓结构出现明显调整后，上周不少基金的仓位结构又有向原有结构回复的迹象，这很可能表明部分基金近一段调整持仓的思路：一是对不看好的个股和行业坚决减仓，把资金向核心板块集中；二是在对稳定持有的重仓板块适时进行波段操作，以此不断降低持仓成本，由此似乎也可以解释重仓板块的震荡格局。

    从上周的市场情况来看，与前几次反弹不同的是，在缺乏实质性利好消息的情况下，大盘没有震荡向下，反而借银行系基金公司获批这一模糊利好持续上扬，这种走势很可能并非市场本身发生了变化，而是新增资金入市所推动。部分基金重仓板块再度活跃是市场整体走高的重要原因，目前情况下，基金并不具备大规模买入的条件。市场传闻的保险资金入市很可能是新增资金的主要来源。在这种情况下，新增的保险资金和存量的基金资金之间的博弈就将显著影响市场。

    对于新入市的保险资金而言，在目前位置入市的总体风险不大，但仍需要谨慎选择板块和个股。行业基本面前景稳定、相对价格处于低位的大盘蓝筹股如银行、电力等仍是重点的投资对象；而另一类具备相对估值优势的企业也成为新增资金关注的对象，如中集集团、盐湖钾肥等，即使价格已在高位仍有资金在持续进入。而对基金而言，多数基金只能在目前的持仓水平上进行结构调整，对于重仓板块既有基金选择减持，也有基金选择波段操作，由此导致基金重仓股走势出现较大分化。部分得到新增资金看好的个股在放量震荡后仍能维持强势，如振华港机、上港集箱、盐田港等主要港口股，皖通高速、赣粤高速等高速公路板块。而成长性放缓的高价绩优股则出现相对滞涨的趋势，如中兴通讯、贵州茅台等个股，均出现了较明显的减仓行为。

    总体而言，我们认为在市场仍面临众多不确定冲击的情况下，即使新增资金入市，也很难是持续性的大规模进入，机构之间的博弈将会是未来一段时间影响市场的主要因素。

    开放式基金仓位测算结果

    基金名称       本周持仓比例估计     上周持仓比例估计     本周持仓比例变动     本周持仓净变动     增持状态    

    天治品质       30.61%               21.46%               9.16%                8.75%              增持迹象    

    长信银利       25.35%               17.06%               8.28%                7.94%             

    东方龙         22.81%               16.43%               6.38%                6.05%             

    博时主题       47.89%               43.39%               4.49%                3.91%              仓位稳定    

    盛利混合       16.78%               12.77%               4.02%                3.75%             

    申万精选       66.99%               62.84%               4.15%                3.60%             

    宝利配置       58.63%               54.47%               4.15%                3.56%             

    华夏回报       70.56%               66.99%               3.57%                3.04%             

    国泰稳健       60.48%               57.02%               3.47%                2.89%             

    巨田基础       70.12%               67.01%               3.11%                2.59%             

    天同180        72.68%               69.88%               2.80%                2.30%             

    金鹰精选       70.17%               67.42%               2.75%                2.23%             

    国泰精选       71.01%               68.36%               2.64%                2.13%             

    合丰成长       69.09%               66.55%               2.54%                2.01%             

    易基成长       74.23%               72.13%               2.10%                1.62%             

    招商先锋       74.66%               72.62%               2.04%                1.57%             

    国联成长       75.24%               73.22%               2.02%                1.55%             

    嘉实成长       67.17%               65.10%               2.08%                1.54%             

    荷银精选       72.32%               70.49%               1.84%                1.35%             

    华宝策略       74.23%               72.53%               1.71%                1.24%             

    融通100        72.37%               70.66%               1.71%                1.22%             

    华安180        73.98%               72.41%               1.57%                1.10%             

    景顺内需       76.83%               75.44%               1.39%                0.95%             

    长盛动态       57.94%               56.44%               1.49%                0.91%             

    银华优势       74.63%               73.26%               1.37%                0.91%             

    普天收益       64.50%               63.04%               1.46%                0.91%             

    富国价值       72.12%               70.77%               1.36%                0.87%             

    宝盈鸿利       67.86%               66.53%               1.32%                0.80%             

    广发聚富       73.58%               72.35%               1.23%                0.76%             

    富国动态       68.70%               67.52%               1.18%                0.66%             

    融通行业       71.23%               70.44%               0.79%                0.30%             

    光大保德       77.23%               76.52%               0.71%                0.29%             

    天治增长       31.57%               30.88%               0.69%                0.18%             

    泰信策略       68.75%               68.20%               0.56%                0.04%             

    华夏大盘       67.75%               67.31%               0.44%                -0.08%            

    博时价值       78.80%               78.72%               0.08%                -0.31%            

    嘉实服务       67.65%               67.59%               0.07%                -0.45%            

    长城久泰       82.17%               82.66%               -0.49%               -0.83%            

    融通新蓝筹     70.08%               70.46%               -0.39%               -0.88%            

    博时裕富       88.98%               89.76%               -0.78%               -1.00%            

    易方达50       92.22%               93.08%               -0.86%               -1.01%            

    封闭式基金仓位测算结果

    基金名称     本周持仓比例估计     上周持仓比例估计     本周持仓比例变动     本周持仓净变动     增持状态

    基金兴华     68.66%               66.55%               2.10%                1.57%              仓位稳定

    基金裕元     72.01%               70.10%               1.91%                1.41%

    基金鸿阳     72.01%               70.12%               1.89%                1.39%

    基金鸿飞     67.56%               65.65%               1.92%                1.38%

    基金科翔     72.01%               70.15%               1.87%                1.37%

    基金安瑞     67.58%               65.76%               1.81%                1.28%

    基金安久     67.58%               65.80%               1.78%                1.25%

    基金兴科     72.03%               70.32%               1.71%                1.22%

    基金汉鼎     72.03%               70.33%               1.70%                1.21%

    基金裕泽     69.88%               68.76%               1.11%                0.60%

    基金金盛     72.10%               71.01%               1.09%                0.60%

    基金同盛     68.77%               67.65%               1.11%                0.59%

    基金安信     66.55%               65.46%               1.09%                0.55%

    基金裕阳     72.11%               71.07%               1.04%                0.55%

    基金同智     68.77%               67.70%               1.07%                0.55%

    基金兴业     73.22%               72.20%               1.02%                0.54%

    基金兴安     73.22%               72.23%               0.99%                0.52%

    基金科讯     73.23%               72.31%               0.92%                0.45%

    基金兴和     69.90%               68.97%               0.93%                0.42%

    基金科瑞     71.01%               70.10%               0.91%                0.41%

    基金汉兴     68.79%               67.87%               0.92%                0.40%

    基金普惠     67.68%               66.79%               0.89%                0.37%

    基金安顺     67.68%               66.79%               0.89%                0.37%

    基金金泰     66.57%               65.68%               0.89%                0.36%

    基金景业     68.80%               67.99%               0.81%                0.30%

    基金汉盛     67.69%               66.87%               0.82%                0.29%

    基金通宝     72.20%               72.01%               0.19%                -0.28%

    基金汉博     68.87%               68.69%               0.18%                -0.33%

    基金天华     66.67%               66.65%               0.01%                -0.51%

    基金景福     66.75%               67.46%               -0.71%               -1.23%

    基金普丰     68.98%               69.79%               -0.81%               -1.31%

    基金通乾     66.76%               67.58%               -0.82%               -1.34%

    基金天元     72.32%               73.20%               -0.88%               -1.34%

    基金隆元     72.32%               73.21%               -0.89%               -1.35%

    基金开元     72.32%               73.23%               -0.91%               -1.37%

    基金金鼎     72.32%               73.24%               -0.92%               -1.38%

    基金丰和     70.10%               71.00%               -0.90%               -1.39%

    基金同益     66.76%               67.65%               -0.88%               -1.40%

    基金同德     70.10%               71.02%               -0.92%               -1.41%

    基金融鑫     66.77%               67.66%               -0.89%               -1.41%

    基金普华     70.10%               71.02%               -0.92%               -1.41%