文/民族证券研发中心袁忠伟 杨晓荣

    重点行业与板块投资分析表

    板块             投资数据                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     本周变化                                                                                          下周投资参考                                                                                                                               

    A股市场 整体     每股收益0.2元以上股票的平均市盈率为20.8倍，平均市净率为2.34倍，平均股价为5.86元。                                                                                                                                                            个股平均上涨2.1%，上证综指上涨2.04%，有73%的股票下跌，253只股票涨5%以上，有54只下跌5%以上。       市场呈现三阳吞两阴的局面，做多气氛得到有效凝聚。市场投资价值的显现必然会吸引场外资金的介入，场内非理性抛售将明显减少。                      

    中小企业板       市盈率28.1市净率2.76，股价12.73元，流通市值占1.2%，60日上涨\下跌弹性系数为1.23\1.14。                                                                                                                                                         上涨3.58%，成交额比例由3%降为2.9%。鑫富股份、苏宁电器、巨轮股份涨10%以上，天奇股份跌0.48%。       在市场活跃之际，板块能快速吸引资金介入，但在市场调整时放大风险，目前股价整体定位偏高7%，注意进出的时机把握。                               

    权重指标股动向   上证50指数上涨1.84%，样本股平均上涨1.8%。上证180指数上涨1.98%，样本股平均上涨1.76%。深圳100指数上涨3.48%，样本股平均上涨2.76%。招商银行、深发展、中集集团、民生银行、五粮液涨4%以上，中国联通、长江电力、宝钢股份、中兴通讯、武钢股份下跌。                                                                                                   280权重股流通市值比例维持53.3%，成交额比例为50.3%，成交额比例略有增加。上涨\下跌弹性0.9\0.89，预计下周初板块走势略强于市场，可把握个股机会。 

    业绩动向         每股收益0.3～0.8元的股票涨幅较大，亏损股平均上涨0.9%，绩差股无法获得高换手率。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  绩优股已长期处于高换手率系数状态，投资者选股一致性增强。                                                                                   

    盘子             流通盘2～3亿的平均上涨2.65%。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  中盘股受到资金重点注意。                                                                                                                   

    股价             11元以上的平均上涨4.1%，高价股有走弱趋势。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     主流机构均持有绩优中高价股。                                                                                                               

    金融             市盈率18.9市净率2.48，流通市值比例为5.1%，上涨\下跌弹性0.94\0.87。                                                                                                                                                                           上涨6.42%，成交额比例升为4.6%。深发展、宏源证券、中信证券领涨9.5%以上。                           银行股在调高房贷利率、调低存款准备金率后走强，加息预期仍将刺激走强。介入资金实力雄厚。                                                      

    电力能源         市盈率18.2市净率2.22，股价6.34元，流通市值比例为8.9%，半年上涨\下跌弹性为0.88\0.9。                                                                                                                                                           上涨3.88%，成交额比例由8.2%升至9.8%。天发石油、国阳新能、国投电力涨10%以上，武汉石油跌2.49%。     能源、原油价格突破60美元/桶、煤炭供应紧张、上网电价与燃料价格实行联动，这使石油、煤炭、电力股出现齐涨的局面。中线持有。                   

    医药             市盈率23.9市净率2.51，股价7.12元，流通市值比例为5.4%，半年上涨\下跌弹性0.97\0.93。                                                                                                                                                           上涨3.69%，成交额比例为4.7%。浙江医药、桐君阁、潜江制药涨10%以上，三九发展、海正药业跌5%以上。    中药产业与特色原料药是优势子行业。云南白药、同仁堂、华海药业、天士力等为老牌强势股，期待马应龙、益伯制药等加盟。                           

    化工             市盈率20.1市净率2.53，股价5.83元，流通市值比例为8.5%，半年上涨\下跌弹性1.03\0.97。                                                                                                                                                           上涨2.97%，成交额比例升为10.7%。扬子石化、华鲁恒升、鑫富股份涨12%以上，大庆联谊领跌17%。           化肥价格稳中有涨涨，氮肥行业上市公司业绩继续增长，原油价格上升对部分石化公司不利。大盘股扬子石化、齐鲁石化开始发力上攻。                    

    港口运输         市盈率22.4市净率2.82，股价7.98元，流通市值比例为6.6%，半年上涨\下跌弹性0.82\0.74。                                                                                                                                                            上涨2.81%，成交额比例为9.1%。中海发展、江西长运、中海海盛、铁龙物流涨10%以上，上海航空领跌10.6%。 05年机场、港口仍处于高增长阶段，集装箱吞吐量依然高速增长，基金重仓持有股票较多。航空股受困于油价的持续上涨，呈现弱势。                     

    食品酿酒         市盈率25.5市净率2.91，股价7.16元，流通市值比例为3.7%，半年上涨\下跌弹性0.82\0.72。                                                                                                                                                           上涨1.86%，成交额比例为3.8%。双汇实业、第一食品、通葡萄酒涨8%以上，南宁糖业领跌17.3%。            贵州茅台、双汇实业、燕京啤酒、伊利股份、张裕等被机构投资者长期持有，其他股票被价值挖掘的机会已不多。                                       

    冶金             市盈率12.4市净率1.81，股价5.7元，流通市值比例为8.1%，半年上涨\下跌弹性0.92\0.9。                                                                                                                                                              上涨1.54%，成交额比例为8.7%。渝开发、焦作万方涨9%以上，武钢股份、鞍钢新轧、韶钢松山跌4%以上。     铁矿石价格大幅上涨，冶金煤与电力价格上升，钢铁价格受限制。2月有色金属冶炼出厂价同比上涨12.4%。两类股票走势明显分化。                         

    汽车             市盈率16.3市净率1.85，股价4.88元，流通市值比例为2.4%，上涨\下跌弹性0.98\1.14。                                                                                                                                                                上涨1.11%，成交额比例为2.2%。江淮汽车、T重型汽车涨10%以上，福田汽车、亚星客车跌7%以上。           石油、钢铁、电力等原材料价格继续上涨，必然影响到汽车企业的生产和销售，行业成本转嫁能力较弱。已持续弱势。                                   

    电子信息 传媒    市盈率27.7市净率2.99，平均股价7.05元，流通市值比例10.5%，半年上涨\下跌弹性1.14\1.16。                                                                                                                                                         上涨0.66%，成交额比例为9.5%。太工天成、中软、上海邮通涨10%以上，ST太光、ST金荔、新大陆跌10%以上。 3G渐入佳境，数据网和宽带接入、NGN和传输市场仍是增长最快领域。高市盈率定位仍未改变，机构不敢轻易介入，弱势市场风险大。                      

    造纸包装         市盈率19.9市净率1.83，平均股价5.46元，流通市值比例1.5%。                                                                                                                                                                                     下跌0.76%，新疆天宏涨6.1%，ST吉纸、ST江纸、ST佳纸领跌11%以上。                                    半年上涨\下跌弹性0.84\0.91，整体业绩较差，但恒丰纸业、晨鸣纸业、华泰股份等绩优股开始走强。                                                  

    下周资产配置参考表

    持股比例               市场投资价值显现值得机构介入，不确定因素依然存在，持股比例可控制在60%左右。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

    组合配置               铁矿石、原油、煤炭、电力等涨价声一片，产业分化势在必然。行业研究、个股价值重估影响机构中长线投资目标选择；投资组合偏重于具有保值功能的价值股，对涨跌弹性好的股票坚持高抛低吸。                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

    样本股 （机构参考）    中集集团（000039）、盐田港（000088）、西山煤电（000983）、神火股份（000933）、开滦精煤（600997）、上海能源（600508）、中原油气（000956）、明星电力（600101）、韶能股份（000601）、龙元建设（600491）、唐钢股份（000709）、韶钢松山（000717）、邯郸钢铁（600001）、五矿发展（600058）、扬子石化（000866）、云天化（600096）、招商银行（600036）、浦发银行（600000）、 新中基（000972）、安琪酵母（600298）、航天信息（600271）、华胜天成（600410）、马应龙（600993）、千金药业（600479）、科华生物（002022）、华兰生物（002007）、鑫富股份（002019）、七喜电脑（002027）、新和成（002001） 、天奇股份（002009） 

    中户 投资组合参考      中集集团（000039）、神火股份（000933）、开滦精煤（600997）、上海能源（600508）、中原油气（000956）、明星电力（600101）、龙元建设（600491）、五矿发展（600058）、扬子石化（000866）、浦发银行（600000）、   新中基（000972）、千金药业（600479）、鑫富股份（002019）、新和成（002001） 、天奇股份（002009）                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

    散户 投资组合参考      神火股份（000933）、开滦精煤（600997）、中原油气（000956）、龙元建设（600491）、扬子石化（000866）、浦发银行（600000）、千金药业（600479）、鑫富股份（002019）、天奇股份（002009）